Past sell-off analysis
Stock performance after market sell-offs
We analyze trading days since 1998 on which the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell more than 2%. For each sell-off day, we compare the later returns of the stocks selected that day with the market's return and provide the results date by date.
- 274Sell-off days analyzed
- 58Daily decline of more than 3.5%
- 190Ahead of the top-30% benchmark
- —Behind the top-30% benchmark
Past analysis results
13,114 stock-level performance comparisons
We analyzed the 274 trading days since 1998 on which SPY fell more than 2% in a single day. Stocks were selected using only data available as of each day's close, then compared with the market's return over the same subsequent period.
Performance by period
The share of stocks selected on sell-off days that outperformed the market, compared by period. The top 30% of stocks by dollar volume on the same trading days serve as the benchmark, and the performance gap was widest in the most recent period.
By period · share of stocks screened on sell-off days that later beat the market
- Screened stocks
- Top 30% by dollar volume, same day
1998–2009
2010–2019
2020–2026
Stocks screened on each sell-off day using data public that day · vs. the market (S&P 500) afterward · same days · same period · recalculated from historical prices
Sell-off days including the dot-com crash, the financial crisis, COVID, and the tariff shock · median afterward, starting from $1M at the sell-off day's close
- Screened stocks
- Top 30% by dollar volume, same day
- S&P 500
Median of amounts calculated separately for each day · $1M at each sell-off day's close, split equally across stocks · includes leveraged ETFs · based on historical closing prices · excludes taxes, dividends, and fees
Each sell-off day's screened stocks vs. the market afterward
Hover over or tap a bar to see what $1M at the sell-off day's close was worth later
- Beat the market
- Lagged the market
One bar = one sell-off day · above = margin ahead of the market · below = margin behind · recalculated from historical prices
Screened on sell-off days · top 30% by dollar volume · all stocks that day · share that later beat the market
Sell-off day details
Results for each of the 274 sell-off days
See the stocks selected on each date and how they performed against the market afterward, with each stock's return and comparison shown individually.
- Days ahead of the top 30%
- Top 30% by dollar volume, same day
- Down more than 3.5%
Upper bars = share of screened stocks that beat the marketLower bars = S&P 500 ETF (SPY) daily change
Click a bar to open that sell-off day. Choose a year in the top row and a date in the bottom row.Swipe the top row to choose a year, then tap a bar below to choose a date.
Notable sell-offs
Days down more than 3.5%
Mar 20, 2020
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) that day−4.9%
33 of the 48 screened stocks later beat the market
- Screened by 33 / 4868.8%
- Top 30% by dollar volume, same day46.2%
- All stocks, same day36.7%
Ahead of the same day's top 30% by dollar volume
48 screened stocks vs. the market afterward
274 sell-off days · 13,114 stock picks · vs. the market (S&P 500) afterward · screened with data through each sell-off day's close
By depth of sell-off
Performance by size of decline
We analyzed the 58 days with a daily decline of more than 3.5% separately from the 216 days with a decline of 2–3.5%. Both groups outperformed the benchmark of the top 30% by dollar volume.
By depth of sell-off · share of screened stocks that later beat the market
- Screened by
- Top 30% by dollar volume, same day
- All stocks, same day
- Days down more than 3.5%58 sell-off days · ahead of the top 30% by dollar volume on 51n = 2,78461.4%48.2%45.9%
Gap +13.1pp
- Days down 2% to 3.5%216 sell-off days · ahead of the top 30% by dollar volume on 139n = 10,33053.8%46.3%42.0%
Gap +7.5pp
How the numbers work
Methodology and counting criteria
Since 1998, SPY has fallen more than 2% in a day on 319 trading days. The 274 days for which later performance could be calculated were included in the analysis.
01 — Point-in-time data
Stock selection used only data available as of each sell-off day's close. Later price data was used only to measure performance, guarding against look-ahead bias.
02 — Like-for-like comparison
All stocks (42.9%) and the top 30% by dollar volume (46.7%) were compared over the same periods using the same method.
03 — Trading costs included
After a 0.2% round-trip trading cost, the share for the selected stocks was 55.0%, versus 45.9% for the top 30% by dollar volume.
Important information
These results are a retrospective analysis of historical market data and do not represent actual investment returns. Market declines are measured using the closing price of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), not the S&P 500 index.
The analysis covers only stocks with current price data, so stocks delisted in the past may be excluded. The same stock universe was applied to the benchmarks.
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